First day of December and the #Leafs are 4th in the East. I would have been laughed at and mocked beyond belief if I had suggested such a thing. I predicted them to end 6th in the East at the end of the season and everyone took it as a big joke. Well who's laughing now?
Oh, let's also not forget, our starting goalie only played 6 games before Gionta took his head off. We've played 19 games with our 2nd and 3rd string goalies. In addition to Reimer, we've had long injuries to:
Mike Komisarek
Colby Armstrong
Tim Connolly
Matthew Lombardi
Steckel, Grabovski, and MacArthur have all missed games with injuries (and a suspension) as well.
Not only have the Leafs gone 14-9-2 in the first two months of the season, but they've done it heavily undermanned!
Oh, and Kessel and Lupul are #1/2 in league-wide scoring.
Players who are under-performing include Dupuis, Kulemin, Franson, as well as Lombardi while he wasn't injured. Gustavsson started off the season horribly, but his play has improved as of late. Inconsistency is the main reason I can't see him being a starter right now, but he could very well be traded when Reimer gets back. Scrivens has started 6 games, going 2-4, but to his credit has a SV% of .904 (compared to Gus at .898).
Is this team complete? Not yet. Are they a playoff team? Most definitely.
How do we stack up against Last Year's Leafs? We currently have 30pts. We didn't get our 30th point until Dec. 26th last year (and stayed at that point total until Jan 1). We currently have 14 wins. Last season we didn't win our 14th game until Jan. 1st. Exactly one month difference from this season.
There's lots to be thankful for in Leafs nation, and a lot to look forward to. Go Leafs Go.
Thursday, 1 December 2011
Saturday, 20 August 2011
Center Controversy?
Controversy? What controversy?
1C? Connolly, obviously.
But what about his health?
Well if he's not healthy then Lombardi can take his spot, right?
I guess he could fill a temporary role, but his health is an even bigger questionmark.
Ok, well at least the 2C we can agree on. Grabovski.
Yes, That one seems to be the only guarantee.
But the 3C is obviously Bozak, right?
Not so fast, if Connolly is healthy, and Lombardi is healthy...
Lombardi will play the 4C, right?
Boyce is a better fit at the 4C with his work ethic. He's a role player.
So who is sitting in the press-box?
Well, assuming everyone is healthy it will probably look something like this:
1C = Connolly
2C = Grabovski
That's all we really know for sure. After that we can make some assumptions:
3C = Bozak. He played the 1C before this as a (failed) attempt to fill a gap. Less offensive responsibility and lower quality opponents will give Bozak a chance to excel.
4C and Press-box will be filled depending on a number of factors:
1) Lombardi's health. If he's not capable to play, then we no longer have an issue.
2) Lombardi's conditioning. Even if he is cleared to play, he hasn't played a game in almost a full year. He hasn't even had a proper practice in that time either. His conditioning is far behind everyone else and will require time to catch up.
3) We know exactly what we're getting with Boyce. He's a role player who will work his ass of for the team. the 4C position is his to lose this season. Barring a remarkable recovery and preseason by Lombardi (which would also put pressure on all the other centers) it looks like our centers will be:
Connolly
Grabovski
Bozak
Boyce
Lombardi
Simple enough right?
Lets take a look at one more variable:
Joe Colborne.
If Colborne impresses at camp it still won't land him a regular spot in the lineup, but it will line him up for a call up during the season when somebody either gets injured, gets into a slump, or even if someone is deemed expendable and is traded.
So how does this year differ from last year? Last year we were short at center, we had a 3C playing the 1C.
This year we have an upgrade. Connolly, while maybe not necessarily a 1C by nature, he is at worst a 2C, and he has the skills that Kessel and Lupul need. Connolly is a pass-first kind of guy. Kessel and Lupul like to shoot. This makes him a perfect fit.
Our complete 2nd line stays together. They put up great numbers last year, and no with a stronger first line they will be the recipients of weaker defending by the opposition. This opens up even more possibilities for our 2nd line this year.
It's our 3rd and 4th lines that see the biggest benefit. That benefit being choice. Last year we didn't have much choice on the bottom end. Whoever was there stayed there. This year we have 4 centers who can legitimately fill those 2 spots. This sort of competition will drive each of them to work harder which will give us a stronger team as a whole.
I'm liking this years controversy at center a lot better than last years.
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Leave comments. I want to know if you agree, disagree, or think I'm out of my mind.
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1C? Connolly, obviously.
But what about his health?
Well if he's not healthy then Lombardi can take his spot, right?
I guess he could fill a temporary role, but his health is an even bigger questionmark.
Ok, well at least the 2C we can agree on. Grabovski.
Yes, That one seems to be the only guarantee.
But the 3C is obviously Bozak, right?
Not so fast, if Connolly is healthy, and Lombardi is healthy...
Lombardi will play the 4C, right?
Boyce is a better fit at the 4C with his work ethic. He's a role player.
So who is sitting in the press-box?
Well, assuming everyone is healthy it will probably look something like this:
1C = Connolly
2C = Grabovski
That's all we really know for sure. After that we can make some assumptions:
3C = Bozak. He played the 1C before this as a (failed) attempt to fill a gap. Less offensive responsibility and lower quality opponents will give Bozak a chance to excel.
4C and Press-box will be filled depending on a number of factors:
1) Lombardi's health. If he's not capable to play, then we no longer have an issue.
2) Lombardi's conditioning. Even if he is cleared to play, he hasn't played a game in almost a full year. He hasn't even had a proper practice in that time either. His conditioning is far behind everyone else and will require time to catch up.
3) We know exactly what we're getting with Boyce. He's a role player who will work his ass of for the team. the 4C position is his to lose this season. Barring a remarkable recovery and preseason by Lombardi (which would also put pressure on all the other centers) it looks like our centers will be:
Connolly
Grabovski
Bozak
Boyce
Lombardi
Simple enough right?
Lets take a look at one more variable:
Joe Colborne.
If Colborne impresses at camp it still won't land him a regular spot in the lineup, but it will line him up for a call up during the season when somebody either gets injured, gets into a slump, or even if someone is deemed expendable and is traded.
So how does this year differ from last year? Last year we were short at center, we had a 3C playing the 1C.
This year we have an upgrade. Connolly, while maybe not necessarily a 1C by nature, he is at worst a 2C, and he has the skills that Kessel and Lupul need. Connolly is a pass-first kind of guy. Kessel and Lupul like to shoot. This makes him a perfect fit.
Our complete 2nd line stays together. They put up great numbers last year, and no with a stronger first line they will be the recipients of weaker defending by the opposition. This opens up even more possibilities for our 2nd line this year.
It's our 3rd and 4th lines that see the biggest benefit. That benefit being choice. Last year we didn't have much choice on the bottom end. Whoever was there stayed there. This year we have 4 centers who can legitimately fill those 2 spots. This sort of competition will drive each of them to work harder which will give us a stronger team as a whole.
I'm liking this years controversy at center a lot better than last years.
Remember to subscribe to my blog for more on the Leafs.
Leave comments. I want to know if you agree, disagree, or think I'm out of my mind.
Visit about.me/JoeShaw17 to connect to my Twitter, Flickr, and much more.
Tuesday, 19 July 2011
No News Is Good News... Right?
It hasn't exactly been the most exciting off season so far for the Leafs. Personally, I'm very thankful for that! The combination of a limited amount of free agents paired with large contracts (Term + $) means that staying away from bad contracts is the best thing the Leafs have done this far.
Thanks to www.capgeek.com for their wonderful work on updating everything to do with NHL Cap space!
Lets take a look at where they stand so far. I will add years and cap hit after each player.
First Line
Lupul (2/4.25) - Connolly (2/4.75) - Kessel (3/5.4)
The signing of Connolly was the worst contract the Leafs have dished out. That's a positive. In an overpaid/over-termed off season they managed to secure a Center who will fill in for 2 years (as opposed to the 5+ year deals being dished out by other teams!) as they develop a #1 Center from within their organization (Colborne, most likely).
Kessel and Lupul will continue to produce. I predict 25 goals for Lupul, 15 for Connoly (He's here for assists, not goals. Remember that people), and 40 goals for Kessel this year.
Second Line
Kulemin (1/2.35) Grabovski (1/2.9) MacArthur (2/3.25)
This line picked up the slack last year left by an under-producing first line. With a great season together under their belts, and a better first line ahead of them I expect more of the same this year. Having a better first line means that teams can no longer put their top defensive group out against this line.
With two players fighting for a contract extension and MacArthur looking to prove last year was not a fluke I expect all three players to score 25+ goals.
The bottom 6 isn't set in stone as the top 6 seem to be.
*Third Line
Kadri (2/1.72) Bozak (2/1.5) Armstrong (2/3)
Bozak will excel this year in a reduced offensive role. He will still not put up huge offensive numbers, but will not be a defensive liability playing on the third line. He was overworked on the first line and put in a position he was not ready for. Armstrong is a hard worker and will grind on this line perfect. Kadri will have his shot to show his skill here. Playing against teams 3rd D-pairings means that he should be able to build some confidence in the NHL and go hard to the net. He will be the go-to guy for offence on this line.
Offensive numbers are not what will matter from this line, but I expect Kadri to break the 15 goal mark, Bozak will be have 10+ but expect him to have a larger assist total than last year, and a much better +/-. Armstrong will grind out 10+ goals as well, and he'll be a thorn in the side of opposing players, wearing them down with his energy.
Fourth line (the "Mix-and-Match" line)
Orr(2/1) Brown(3/0.737)
Boyce(1/0.7) Dupuis(1/0.65)
Rosehill(1/0.6) Frattin (1/1.3)
Colborne(2/1.1) Zigomanis (1/0.65)
Out of these 8 players only 3 will be playing on any given night, and 4 of them will probably be in the AHL at any given time with the Marlies. Training camp will give us a better idea of where some of the younger players (specifically Colborne) are in their development. Depending on what is needed (toughness, grinders, etc) each night will decide who is playing on this line.
No real predictions for this line other than a rotating door of players.
D1
Phaneuf (3/6.5) - Aulie (1/0.733)
With Phaneuf starting to find his scoring touch late in the season last year, getting pucks on net like he used to I expect him to have a rebound season paired with the young, solid defensively Keith Aulie. Phaneuf will be a 15+ goal scorer, pushing for 20. Assists will also be 35+. Aulie will be most impressive in his +/- this year.
D2
Schenn - Liles(1/4.2)
Schenn still isn't signed, but there is a lot of off season left for that to change. I may be going out on a limb assuming that he will still be a Leaf when the season starts, but I don't think it's that big of a jump.
Schenn will be his solid defensive/hard hitting/shot blocking self, and will chip in with a few points as well. Liles will be our QB from the D. 10 Goals, 35+ assists is my prediction there. Big emphasis on the + as they should be lining up with the Grabovski line.
D3
Gunnarsson (2.1.325) - Franson (1/0.8)
Impressive 3rd line D pairing, Both with some offensive upside. Gunnarsson had 20 points last year and was only a -2 on a team with a very bad +/-. I would expect the points to stay about the same, but the +/- to improve. Franson will be another puck-moving D for our PP2 unit. He had 29 points last year, and 21 points in 61 games the year before. Expect 35+ points out of him this year.
Komisarek (3/4.5) seems to be the odd man out. With his salary we could see him packaged off to a team around the cap floor (NYI, FLA, CAR) to give the Leafs a little more breathing room in cap space.
Lashoff (1/0.6) and Gardiner (3/1.12) will be working as hard as they can to earn his way into the top 6 D. If they impress in training camp it could put some pressure on Gunnarsson and Franson. At the very least they provide depth from the AHL in case injuries hit the Leafs D.
Goaltending
Reimer (3/1.8)
Gustavsson (1/1.35)
Reimer will play 60 games
Gustavsson will play the remainder
Reimer has a solid head on his shoulders, doesn't get to high, doesn't get too low. He'll have a great 2nd year in the league, and continue what he started last year.
Gustavsson will be solid this year. He has a defined role. He is the backup, he will get around 20 starts. It's his role and he can prepare for it.
This is the team we are looking at right now, and with an average team age of around 26 years old there is plenty of room for players to surprise us, and there are only 2 players (Connolly and Liles) who are 30 years old now, so it is doubtful that we see any players declining in their production/skill level.
Remember to follow my blog, share it with others, and leave comments about what line combinations you expect; if you agree or disagree with anything, production expectations, any moves you expect Burke to make, or predictions on the Leafs season. Also; Follow me on Twitter: @Joe_17
I believe the Leafs will end the season 5th in the East. How about you?
*Note: If Lombardi (2/3.5) is healthy then he would probably be placed in the 3rd line center position, pushing Bozak to the 4th line (Or if Connoly cannot stay healthy then Lombardi probably slips in between Lupul and Kessel. Between Connoly and Lombardi I would hope that one of them will always be healthy).
Thanks to www.capgeek.com for their wonderful work on updating everything to do with NHL Cap space!
Monday, 4 July 2011
Independence Day, 2011
With all the controversy that seemed to come from Burke haters on July 1st for being in Afghanistan I figured I'd start a blog with my opinions about the Leafs.
First of all, I'd like to say that I have no problem with Burke being in the Middle East on Free Agent Day, and here's why:
1) Skype/Cell Phones/Assistant GM's - We have the personnel available to get the job done and still be in constant contact with the big boss man.
2)Luke Schenn - Luke is our biggest RFA who needs to be signed. Burke spending that day with him gives us a much better shot at a good deal with him.
3) Brad Richards - Now it was never likely that we would land Richards because Burke is unwilling to frontload a contract. I support that decision because he has been firm against such things, and to go back on that would just make him a hypocrite. Now on the off chance that we did land this coveted free agent, we needed to make sure we had the cap space for him (I would imagine if he had come here it would of been for around 7.5m/season) and the other 4 players we would need to sign. For this reason the Leafs couldn't really pay the $ that was being handed out to mid-level players (at long term contracts) before they knew for sure that Richards was out of reach.
4) Canada - Yes, Canada. Burke has been shunned by many because of his "Americans First" attitude that some believe he has. American coaches, players, etc. So when Burke finally does something for Canadians you criticize it: "He could have went any other day". But the point is, he was with the Canadian troops on CANADA DAY. I appreciate that.
That all being said, I understand why people are upset; He's our GM, and if you ignore/don't realize all the things I just said (especially the Luke Schenn part) it may seem like he's not doing what he's getting paid for
Ok, so off of the Burke topic, where do the Leafs stand as of today with their roster?
Forwards
1 - Lupul - Connolly - Kessel
2 - Kulemin - Grabovski - (MacArthur)
Those two lines are basically set (provided Connolly stays healthy, and MacArthur gets a new contract).
After the first two lines, things may be a little confusing; we have:
Lombardi (probably not going to play), Bozak (still an RFA),
Jay Rosehill, Mike Brown, Colton Orr (Tough guys, most likely only 1, max 2 in the lineup any given night).
Matt Frattin, Nazem Kadri, Joe Colborne (Young guys still trying to earn their spot. I imagine Kadri is a lock on the 3rd line wing this season though).
If I had to put together the bottom two lines I would probably say something like this:
3 - Armstrong - Bozak - Kadri
4 - Frattin - Colborne - Orr
Now if Lombardi is actually healthy and able to play, that makes Bozak expendable. Not counting on that though. Also, the 4th line is a big question. I expect Colborne to be up full time after the first 20 games if he doesn't start the season up with the big club. Orr/Brown/Rosehill could take turns (who's playing well, who's healthy, etc.) on the wing(s) depending on how Frattin is playing as well.
On D it is a much better looking story:
Phaneuf - Aulie
(Schenn) - Liles
Gunnarsson - Franson
Komisarek - (Lashoff)
Providing Schenn is re-signed (I have no doubt he will be) our top 6 is very strong. After that Komisarek becomes expendable (trade to a team looking for the cap floor?). Then we are left with Lashoff (again, expecting him to be re-signed) who will probably start in the AHL with the Marlies, but I expect to see him up with the big club at least semi-regularly (if there's an injury on the blueline then we will definitely see him).
In net it is as straight forward as can be.
Starter: Reimer
Backup: Gustavsson
I expect Reimer to start about 55-60 games leaving 22-27 for Gustavsson.
If Gustavsson's heart complications start up again then I see Scrivens being brought up, and Reimer taking more starts. I do not foresee a trade for another goalie as an option.
So Leafs fans, there's still some work left to do this summer, but the pieces will all continue to fall into place. There is (and never has been) any need for Burke to rush things. He waits for the right time to get the guys he wants. We still have 10.5m left in cap space ( www.capgeek.com ) for 3 players. Assuming those 3 are MacArthur, Schenn, and Bozak we're probably looking at 3.25, 3.5, and 2 respectively. That would leave 1.75m in cap space (most likely with 3.5m free when Lombardi is still unable to play). Lots of room if any trades are to be made (and Burke always seems to have a way of making them).
We have an exciting season coming up, and I for one am looking forward to it with great anticipation.
First of all, I'd like to say that I have no problem with Burke being in the Middle East on Free Agent Day, and here's why:
1) Skype/Cell Phones/Assistant GM's - We have the personnel available to get the job done and still be in constant contact with the big boss man.
2)Luke Schenn - Luke is our biggest RFA who needs to be signed. Burke spending that day with him gives us a much better shot at a good deal with him.
3) Brad Richards - Now it was never likely that we would land Richards because Burke is unwilling to frontload a contract. I support that decision because he has been firm against such things, and to go back on that would just make him a hypocrite. Now on the off chance that we did land this coveted free agent, we needed to make sure we had the cap space for him (I would imagine if he had come here it would of been for around 7.5m/season) and the other 4 players we would need to sign. For this reason the Leafs couldn't really pay the $ that was being handed out to mid-level players (at long term contracts) before they knew for sure that Richards was out of reach.
4) Canada - Yes, Canada. Burke has been shunned by many because of his "Americans First" attitude that some believe he has. American coaches, players, etc. So when Burke finally does something for Canadians you criticize it: "He could have went any other day". But the point is, he was with the Canadian troops on CANADA DAY. I appreciate that.
That all being said, I understand why people are upset; He's our GM, and if you ignore/don't realize all the things I just said (especially the Luke Schenn part) it may seem like he's not doing what he's getting paid for
Ok, so off of the Burke topic, where do the Leafs stand as of today with their roster?
Forwards
1 - Lupul - Connolly - Kessel
2 - Kulemin - Grabovski - (MacArthur)
Those two lines are basically set (provided Connolly stays healthy, and MacArthur gets a new contract).
After the first two lines, things may be a little confusing; we have:
Lombardi (probably not going to play), Bozak (still an RFA),
Jay Rosehill, Mike Brown, Colton Orr (Tough guys, most likely only 1, max 2 in the lineup any given night).
Matt Frattin, Nazem Kadri, Joe Colborne (Young guys still trying to earn their spot. I imagine Kadri is a lock on the 3rd line wing this season though).
If I had to put together the bottom two lines I would probably say something like this:
3 - Armstrong - Bozak - Kadri
4 - Frattin - Colborne - Orr
Now if Lombardi is actually healthy and able to play, that makes Bozak expendable. Not counting on that though. Also, the 4th line is a big question. I expect Colborne to be up full time after the first 20 games if he doesn't start the season up with the big club. Orr/Brown/Rosehill could take turns (who's playing well, who's healthy, etc.) on the wing(s) depending on how Frattin is playing as well.
On D it is a much better looking story:
Phaneuf - Aulie
(Schenn) - Liles
Gunnarsson - Franson
Komisarek - (Lashoff)
Providing Schenn is re-signed (I have no doubt he will be) our top 6 is very strong. After that Komisarek becomes expendable (trade to a team looking for the cap floor?). Then we are left with Lashoff (again, expecting him to be re-signed) who will probably start in the AHL with the Marlies, but I expect to see him up with the big club at least semi-regularly (if there's an injury on the blueline then we will definitely see him).
In net it is as straight forward as can be.
Starter: Reimer
Backup: Gustavsson
I expect Reimer to start about 55-60 games leaving 22-27 for Gustavsson.
If Gustavsson's heart complications start up again then I see Scrivens being brought up, and Reimer taking more starts. I do not foresee a trade for another goalie as an option.
So Leafs fans, there's still some work left to do this summer, but the pieces will all continue to fall into place. There is (and never has been) any need for Burke to rush things. He waits for the right time to get the guys he wants. We still have 10.5m left in cap space ( www.capgeek.com ) for 3 players. Assuming those 3 are MacArthur, Schenn, and Bozak we're probably looking at 3.25, 3.5, and 2 respectively. That would leave 1.75m in cap space (most likely with 3.5m free when Lombardi is still unable to play). Lots of room if any trades are to be made (and Burke always seems to have a way of making them).
We have an exciting season coming up, and I for one am looking forward to it with great anticipation.
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