Lets take a look at where they stand so far. I will add years and cap hit after each player.
First Line
Lupul (2/4.25) - Connolly (2/4.75) - Kessel (3/5.4)
The signing of Connolly was the worst contract the Leafs have dished out. That's a positive. In an overpaid/over-termed off season they managed to secure a Center who will fill in for 2 years (as opposed to the 5+ year deals being dished out by other teams!) as they develop a #1 Center from within their organization (Colborne, most likely).
Kessel and Lupul will continue to produce. I predict 25 goals for Lupul, 15 for Connoly (He's here for assists, not goals. Remember that people), and 40 goals for Kessel this year.
Second Line
Kulemin (1/2.35) Grabovski (1/2.9) MacArthur (2/3.25)
This line picked up the slack last year left by an under-producing first line. With a great season together under their belts, and a better first line ahead of them I expect more of the same this year. Having a better first line means that teams can no longer put their top defensive group out against this line.
With two players fighting for a contract extension and MacArthur looking to prove last year was not a fluke I expect all three players to score 25+ goals.
The bottom 6 isn't set in stone as the top 6 seem to be.
*Third Line
Kadri (2/1.72) Bozak (2/1.5) Armstrong (2/3)
Bozak will excel this year in a reduced offensive role. He will still not put up huge offensive numbers, but will not be a defensive liability playing on the third line. He was overworked on the first line and put in a position he was not ready for. Armstrong is a hard worker and will grind on this line perfect. Kadri will have his shot to show his skill here. Playing against teams 3rd D-pairings means that he should be able to build some confidence in the NHL and go hard to the net. He will be the go-to guy for offence on this line.
Offensive numbers are not what will matter from this line, but I expect Kadri to break the 15 goal mark, Bozak will be have 10+ but expect him to have a larger assist total than last year, and a much better +/-. Armstrong will grind out 10+ goals as well, and he'll be a thorn in the side of opposing players, wearing them down with his energy.
Fourth line (the "Mix-and-Match" line)
Orr(2/1) Brown(3/0.737)
Boyce(1/0.7) Dupuis(1/0.65)
Rosehill(1/0.6) Frattin (1/1.3)
Colborne(2/1.1) Zigomanis (1/0.65)
Out of these 8 players only 3 will be playing on any given night, and 4 of them will probably be in the AHL at any given time with the Marlies. Training camp will give us a better idea of where some of the younger players (specifically Colborne) are in their development. Depending on what is needed (toughness, grinders, etc) each night will decide who is playing on this line.
No real predictions for this line other than a rotating door of players.
D1
Phaneuf (3/6.5) - Aulie (1/0.733)
With Phaneuf starting to find his scoring touch late in the season last year, getting pucks on net like he used to I expect him to have a rebound season paired with the young, solid defensively Keith Aulie. Phaneuf will be a 15+ goal scorer, pushing for 20. Assists will also be 35+. Aulie will be most impressive in his +/- this year.
D2
Schenn - Liles(1/4.2)
Schenn still isn't signed, but there is a lot of off season left for that to change. I may be going out on a limb assuming that he will still be a Leaf when the season starts, but I don't think it's that big of a jump.
Schenn will be his solid defensive/hard hitting/shot blocking self, and will chip in with a few points as well. Liles will be our QB from the D. 10 Goals, 35+ assists is my prediction there. Big emphasis on the + as they should be lining up with the Grabovski line.
D3
Gunnarsson (2.1.325) - Franson (1/0.8)
Impressive 3rd line D pairing, Both with some offensive upside. Gunnarsson had 20 points last year and was only a -2 on a team with a very bad +/-. I would expect the points to stay about the same, but the +/- to improve. Franson will be another puck-moving D for our PP2 unit. He had 29 points last year, and 21 points in 61 games the year before. Expect 35+ points out of him this year.
Komisarek (3/4.5) seems to be the odd man out. With his salary we could see him packaged off to a team around the cap floor (NYI, FLA, CAR) to give the Leafs a little more breathing room in cap space.
Lashoff (1/0.6) and Gardiner (3/1.12) will be working as hard as they can to earn his way into the top 6 D. If they impress in training camp it could put some pressure on Gunnarsson and Franson. At the very least they provide depth from the AHL in case injuries hit the Leafs D.
Goaltending
Reimer (3/1.8)
Gustavsson (1/1.35)
Reimer will play 60 games
Gustavsson will play the remainder
Reimer has a solid head on his shoulders, doesn't get to high, doesn't get too low. He'll have a great 2nd year in the league, and continue what he started last year.
Gustavsson will be solid this year. He has a defined role. He is the backup, he will get around 20 starts. It's his role and he can prepare for it.
This is the team we are looking at right now, and with an average team age of around 26 years old there is plenty of room for players to surprise us, and there are only 2 players (Connolly and Liles) who are 30 years old now, so it is doubtful that we see any players declining in their production/skill level.
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I believe the Leafs will end the season 5th in the East. How about you?
*Note: If Lombardi (2/3.5) is healthy then he would probably be placed in the 3rd line center position, pushing Bozak to the 4th line (Or if Connoly cannot stay healthy then Lombardi probably slips in between Lupul and Kessel. Between Connoly and Lombardi I would hope that one of them will always be healthy).
Thanks to www.capgeek.com for their wonderful work on updating everything to do with NHL Cap space!
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